With the signing of the Industry Security Annex agreement between Indian
and the US government on Thursday, the contest for the Indian Air
Force’s $15 billion fighter jet tender has become more intriguing.
The
signing of one of the most critical "foundational agreements" clears
the way for Boeing and Lockheed Martin to compete in the forthcoming
tender with the F/A-18E/F and F-21 respectively, says former squadron
leader of the Indian Air Force (IAF) and prominent Defence Analyst
Vijainder K. Thakur.
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has
also expressed hope that the signing of the ISA will enable the smooth
transfer of classified technology and information between private
entities in the two countries.
The
Industry Security Annex (ISA) is considered an essential agreement for
any country seeking to receive high-end defence technology from the US.
Darwinian Law in Selection ::
Since
the IAF is looking for a replacement for its Soviet-era MiG-21, MiG-23,
and MiG-27 light-medium fighter jets, the government is expected to
fill in the void created by these jets.
"The replacement would
logically be a reasonably priced medium fighter such as the F-21, MiG-35
or SAAB Gripen. Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter and the F/A-18 would be
too expensive and heavy for IAF requirements, considering the limited
budget and large purchase quantity," Thakur explained.
Some of
the analysts put their weight behind the Rafale. They consider that
French jet manufacturer Dassault may lower their quote price in the 114
jet tender since it has already amortised many of its costs after
winning the tender for 36 Rafales.
Nevertheless, this October,
Indian Air Chief Marshal Rakesh Bhadauria had toned down this argument,
saying that to supply more Rafales, Dassault would have to win the
tender.
"Our plan is to build 114 multi-role fighter aircraft
(MRFA) in the Strategic Partner (SP) model, and that is currently being
followed," said Bhadauria.
Former financial advisor to the Indian
Defence Ministry Amit Cowshish said that going by the previous
experience, "This time more than one aircraft is likely to meet the
requirements, which implies that the choice may not be restricted to the
US fighters".
Cowshish has conducted dozens of defence deals over the last decade.
The Elephant in the Room ::
Most
Indian analysts unequivocally believe that cost will play the most
crucial factor in the selection, considering the severe shortage of
funds for the modernisation of the IAF.
In 2019-20, ending March
2020, the IAF received nearly a $5.1 billion budget for modernisation
that included $3.5 billion for aircraft and aero engines.
With the current state of the Indian economy, the budget may either go down or remain stagnant next year as well.
"There
will, of course, be stiff competition among various manufacturers in
offering technology transfers, not least because of the size of the
order. But this may not be the deciding factor; I guess that, apart from
the strategic considerations, finances will play a significant role in
the decision-making process," ex- financial advisor Cowshish said.
Taking into account the costs and requirement of the IAF, Defence
Analyst Vijainder K Thakur said: "F-21 and MiG-35 would be hot
favourites. Their design is of a similar vintage. The MiG-35 probably
has greater growth potential, but the F-21's long term costs are likely
to be lower."
F-35: A Contender to be an IAF Jet?
The
IAF has three choices as of now, for stealth fighters. First, the
abandoned PAK FA stealth fighter programme with Russia, in which it has
already invested in the preliminary phase of the project famously known
as fifth-generation fighter aircraft; second, the home-grown Advanced
Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme, and third, the American F-35
jet.
Besides offering F-21s under the Narendra Modi Government's
Make in India programme, Lockheed Martin has mentioned in the recent
past, that it is indeed open to working with India on the AMCA, as well
as the Light Combat Aircraft, the MK2.
Currently, Washington is exporting F-35 to its allies at a price of around $90 million per airframe.
"India
would pragmatically be looking at manufacturing technology or Transfer
of Technology (ToT) rather than know-how for cutting-edge electronics,
materials and engines. Industrial ToT on offer is likely to be similar
from all vendors. No country will give away know-how that India's
Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) might seek,"
Defence Analyst Thakur hinted.
New Delhi will have to remain rational while choosing fighter jets to
replace MiG-21, MiG-23, MiG-27 light and medium fighters, he added.
Additionally,
IAF Chief Bhadauria has been throwing his weight behind the Indian-made
Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project since he took over the
affairs of the 140,000 troops strong force.
"Just because we call
AMCA the fifth generation, doesn't mean we limit the technology to the
fifth generation, and technology could be fifth and even sixth
generation…DRDO must make it happen. As not only our pride is at stake,
but also that of the IAF," IAF Chief Bhadauria stated in October while
addressing defence scientists of the DRDO in New Delhi.
Considering
the past record of the DRDO in developing home-grown products, defence
analysts, have opined that the AMCA is still several years away.
"I
think the IAF will eventually go for the Su-57, as Russia will ensure
that the fighter meets most IAF expectations, the AMCA will take much
longer to develop than is currently projected, and no other country is
offering a 5th generation fighter to India," Analyst Thakur added.
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