January 23, 2012

Russia to Export Arms to India for $7.7 bln in 2012

In 2012, Russia will sell armaments to India for about $7.7 bln which is over 60% of Russian export and 80% of Indian import. Since 2013, the US will become India's largest arms exporter.

Such impressive results in Russo-Indian military cooperation are achieved because of several large programs (value scope of deliveries is calculated on the basis of real delivery dates). It should be noted that considerable part of those deliveries will be implemented with delays from scheduled dates; this explains such high rates in 2012.

The largest delivery will be aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya to join Indian Navy in Dec 2012. Cost of the ship's modernization has been changed several types and finally makes $2.34 bln. The second largest delivery will be two Project 1135.6 frigates to be sold for about $1 bln. Third largest transfer will be leasing of Project 971 nuclear submarine Nerpa to Indian Navy in Jan 2012. According to recent reports, cost of that contract reached $920 mln.

In accordance with earlier announced delivery schedules, in 2012 it is planned to hand over to India about 40 helicopters Mi-17V-5, 21 fighters Su-30MKI (licensed assembling under the contract of 2000), 12 fighters Su-30MKI (licensed assembling under the contract of 2007), and 9 deck-based fighters MiG-29K/KUB.

Also, upgrade programs of MiG-29 fighters, Tu-142 aircrafts, Mi-17 helicopters will be continued in the current year, as well as repair of Project 877EKM diesel electric submarines, delivery of Ka-31 helicopters, engines AL-55, TRDD-50MT, Mi-17 helicopter simulators, Club-S antiship missile launchers, licensed production of T-90S main battle tanks and other programs.

It is noteworthy that America's leadership at Indian arms market will have temporary nature. It is related to large contracts for airplanes P-8I Poseidon, C-17A Globemaster-3, and helicopters AH-64D Apache Longbow which are going to be delivered in 2013-2015.

In figures, US arms export to India in 2013 will be $3.06 bln (comparing to Russia's $2.03 bln), in 2014 - $3.7 bln (Russia - $2.23 bln), and in 2015 - $2.47 bln (Russia - $1.95 bln).

In general, however, Russia will hold leading positions in the period of 2012-2016 thanks to large deliveries of 2012 with estimated amount of $15.6 bln (in 2002-2011 – $14.78 bln, also top position).

The US were at 4-th position during the period of 2002-2011 ($1.66 bln), and took second place in 2012-2016 – about $10 bln.

Israel also keeps tenable positions at India's arms market – $3.7 bln in 2002-2011, second place, and $2.62 bln in 2012-2016 (fourth position).

Volume of deliveries under tenders (results have not been summarized yet) in 2012-2016 will make $11.2 bln. Thus, category "tender" is presently holding second place in 2012-2016.

Totally, scope of India's arms import in 2002-2011 is evaluated as $25.65 bln, and in 2012-2016 - $51.4 bln.

So far, it is difficult to determine a leader at Indian arms market after 2016, since more than one third of deliveries will be held under tenders not completed at the time. Besides, a number of large procurement programs are at conceptual stage.

In 2012, India will preserve the status of the world's largest arms importer approaching the $10-bln verge (about $9.4 bln). According to backlog of orders under already signed contracts and actual tenders, in 2014 this sum could be appreciably higher (by estimate - $10.5 bln in 2014, $12.5 bln in 2015, and $11.3 bln in 2016).

-- ( Rusnavy) 

1 comment:

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