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May 19, 2015

Another Mumbai style attack and Pakistan will loose Balochistan


"You can change friends but not neighbors", said former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

India's security dilemma with respect to its neighbors has been perilous, especially with two of its neighbors cooperating with each other to threaten the country's security. The unsettled border dispute India shares with both the countries brings into picture the potential of conflict.

Despite several warnings, Pakistan has been repeatedly violating ceasefire agreements. China's story of intrusions is well-known, with the country making every effort to elevate its position in India's North-East region. Considering the situation and the porous borders we share with Myanmar, Nepal and Bangladesh, it can be clearly said that India is located in a very dangerous neighborhood.

Pakistan has been using Jihadist strategy as defence mechanism against India. Between 1988-1994, China sold approximately 34 complete M-11 ballistic missiles to Pakistan. China's strategic commitment to Pakistan has been a nightmare for India.

Ever heard of Defense Offensive mode?
Talking about dangerous neighborhood, how can one one not talk about Ajit Doval's speech on the 10th Nani Palkhivala Memorial at the SASTRA University in February 2014. Currently the National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval's lecture establishes India's ability to defend the country through three means, of which defensive offense, could prove to be very disastrous for Pakistan.

Mr. Doval expatiates three modes of countering attacks from Pakistan - Defensive, Defensive Offense, and Offensive.

While Defensive refers to a strategy where guards are employed to prevent someone from entering your territory, Defensive Offense and Offensive modes are more direct, with the latter conveying a more outright message. He asserts that the nuclear threshold is a difficulty in the offensive mode but not in Defensive offense mode. But the line that demands attention is his mention of using vulnerabilities of Pakistan to India's advantage. He says, "You can do one Mumbai, you may lose Balochistan."

The matter of Balochistan isn't unknown to India or Pakistan. Pakistan has time and again accused India of funding, arming and encouraging insurgency in Balochistan - a province that has been waging a struggle for independence since it was incorporated into Pakistan in 1947.

The 'UNHOLY' alliance against Pakistan ::
While Indians have time and again criticized their governments for keeping mum on Pakistan's terror tactics against India, which it executes through its strategic depth policy, there were times when India wasn't exactly a silent spectator.

In 2001, Jane's Information Group, the world's foremost source on intelligence information reported: "The Indian spy agency RAW and the Israeli spy agency Mossad have created four new agencies to infiltrate Pakistan to target important religious and military personalities, journalists, judges, lawyers and bureaucrats.

In addition, bombs would be exploded in trains, railway stations, bridges, bus stations, cinemas, hotels and mosques of rival Islamic sects to incite sectarianism. The alliance was considered unholy by many, which, as it was reported was making efforts to penetrate sensitive circles of top echelon in Pakistan. Whether offensive or counter-offensive, true or rumor, good or bad, the news did manage to scare Pakistan.

Pakistan are not well-wishers ::
Ajit Doval further asserts that though India might have lost valuable life, the country has grown from strength to strength, managing to contain Pakistan's influence and deny them any strategic advantage. He clearly conveys that Pakistanis are not our well-wishers, we will tackle Taliban in the way we want. Deny them weapons, funds and manpower, says Doval on how to smother terrorist groups.

Countering funds with funds is one of the strategies he names. Another method he suggests is to work among Muslims through Muslim organizations to save the children from the hands of terrorist organizations - a strategy which could help India in the long run. Basically "Divide & Rule".

It was the fear of India that drove Pakistan to adapt the strategic depth policy - funding Jihadist groups to spread terror in India. Despite several requests for negotiations, Pakistan refuses to accept India as its friend, attacking the country on every possible occasion. The repeated ceasefire violations are a primary example of that.

Counter Strategic threat to India ::
In December, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on defence had announced that India's security was being compromised. The announcement was in reference to serious shortages of equipment and weaponry. The committee even said India may have already lost its strategic edge over Pakistan as far as the number of fighter squadrons are concerned.

But in the past one year under Modi's leadership, there has been a strong revival of the defence sector in India where more than 1 Lakh Crore of defence deals have been signed and approved. India's neighbors will see a more muscular and aggressive India in the coming few years.

Who is Ajit Doval - India's James Bond ::
Mr Doval, 69, a legend in the secretive world of intelligence and covert operations, retired as the Director of Intelligence Bureau in January 2005.

But he had attained fame much before he rose to the top. As a mid-level Intelligence Bureau officer in the north-east, he infiltrated the underground Mizo National Front, then waging an insurgency against the Indian state, weaned away half a dozen of its top commanders and all but broke the back of the MNF, forcing its leader Laldenga to sue for peace. The Mizo Accord of July 1986 -- after 20 years of insurgency -- was propelled largely by Mr Doval's initiative.

But his exploits did not end there.

In the late 1980s, when militancy was at its peak in Punjab, Mr Doval walked into the besieged Golden Temple in Amritsar posing as a Pakistani agent months before the 1988 Operation Black Thunder and obtained vital intelligence on the militants holed up inside.

Mr Doval, a 1968 batch IPS Officer of the Kerala cadre, also did his 7 year tour of duty in Pakistan, considered a high-risk, high-reward assignment in an intelligence officer's career.

Downsizing Pakistan ::
Pre-1971, India had to commit its armed forces on the Western border with Pak and eastern border with East-Pakistan. But India changed that permanently and made the eastern border front safe and sound.

Pakistan will never be able to forget the humiliating defeat of the 1971 Indo-Pak war which resulted in the seperation of East Pakistan from the West and the creation of a new country which is now Bangladesh.

Pakistan's vulnerabilities are many many times higher than India. Pakistan today is leaderless where not one person or entity is leading the nation. The Govt. of Pakistan, the civil society and the Military establishment of the country are not in sync and India should use this situation to its advantage as a weapon to further destabilize the country which will lead to a permanent collapse of the terror gripped nation.

With a nationalistic Prime Minister (Mr. Narendra Modi) and a highly experienced, patriotic National Security Advisor (Ajit Doval) at the Centre in New Delhi, India today is in a strong dominating position to further disintegrate Pakistan by funding and arming the separatist movement in Balochistan and cutting down Pakistan in size.

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