India's Financial Express newspaper has reported that a decision on the
country's long-delayed Futuristic Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV) project
could be reached by the end of the month. Russian observers say Moscow
has a good chance of winning the contract, but doing so will require
sharing the defense industry's latest armored vehicle technology.
A
source told Financial Express last week that the Defense Acquisition
Council, India's main arms purchase decision-making body, would make a
decision on whether or not to reissue their statement of interest in the
FICV program before the end of July.
The newspaper explained
that several Indian companies, including L&T, Mahindra Group, Tata
Motors, Bharat Forge and Reliance Defense were in the running for the
$7.5 billion, 2600+ vehicle defense order. Possible foreign partners
include Russia's Rosoboronexport, General Dynamics, and Germany's
Rheinmetall Group.
The Indian FICV project envisions the local
design and production of air-transportable infantry fighting vehicles,
most of them in tracked variant, although some are expected to be
produced in a wheeled version as well.
The new vehicles are meant to
replace the 1,400 Soviet-designed BMP-1 and BMP-2 IFVs currently in
service with the Indian ground forces. The FICV project calls for a crew
of three, and the ability to carry up to eight infantrymen. The design
is also expected to minimize losses from mine and IED explosions.
In
addition to Russian, US and German companies, Delhi has already engaged
in negotiations with French, Israeli, South Korean and British
companies on the FICV. When it was originally unveiled in 2009, the FICV
project was meant to be entirely homegrown. However, Indian companies
showing interest in the contract quickly started talk of partnerships
with foreign companies. Mahindra Defense Systems partnered with the UK's
BAE Systems, while Tata Motors partnered with Lockheed Martin and
General Dynamics.
In 2012, media reported that Russia had
proposed selling India localization rights to the BMP-3. In late 2013,
it was reported that Delhi would not abandon the FICV project in favor
of a licensing agreement with Moscow. However, since then the project
has been repeatedly frozen and restarted, with the Indian Defense
Ministry seemingly unable to find a suitable design for its new IFV.
Russian
defense experts believe Moscow has a good shot of participating in the
FICV project, since Russian armored vehicle builders have considerable
experience with both tracked and wheeled armored vehicle designs.
Weapons
export specialist Andrei Frolov told Russia's Svobodnaya Pressa
newspaper that based on his conversations with Russian armored vehicle
builders in contact with Indian officials, "it can be concluded that
Delhi is not interested in the purchase of armored cars, including the
BMP-3, but plans to establish production on its own territory."
"Furthermore,"
he noted, "the armored fighting vehicle must be created in a design
bureau in India, and because local designers don't have the necessary
resources, their industrial groups turn to cooperation with foreign
firms which have the relevant experience."
Delhi, according to
Frolov, considers the BMP-3 to be a worn-in design that's unsuitable for
the technology boost intended to be provided by the FICV project. They
must be made to realize, however, that "the creation of a modern
infantry fighting vehicle is a complicated business. For example, in
Russia, the implementation of the new Kurganets-25 project…involved
dozens of enterprises. In India, for this to be accomplished, new
factories will have to be created."
As far as the competition
goes, Frolov suggested that the German option is probably too expensive,
with Rheinmetall Group's Puma IFV coming in at a cost of about $7
million euros apiece in its German iteration. As for the Russian option,
the main weak point of the Kurganets-25 (tracked) and Bumerang
(wheeled) IFVs is that they have not yet been broadly adopted into the
Russian armed forces, according to the analyst.
The US too has a
decent shot at the contract, Frolov said, even if they may end up
getting chosen based on political considerations. US defense firms have
the added benefit of the fact that Indian companies are already
cooperating with them on defining their new IFV concept.
Asked
why the FICV project has been suspended and resumed so many times,
Frolov explained that the problem lies in the fact that new IFVs seem to
be a low priority for Delhi, compared to other weapons systems at
least. "They would like new planes and submarines [too], but don't have
enough money for everything. Notwithstanding the fact that their park of
IFVs is outdated, this issue is still not a priority for them. It's
obvious that before they create the production base for armored
vehicles, several more years will pass; the whole park cannot be renewed
overnight."
Vladimir Shvarev, deputy director of the
Moscow-based Center for the Analysis of World Arms Trade, also believes
that Russia has a good chance of participating in the FICV project, if
it is ever finalized.
"The program has been stalled for quite
some time now," the expert stressed. "The main reason is that the Indian
Defense Ministry cannot formulate the finalized requirements for their
armored vehicle."
"Furthermore," Shvarev recalled that earlier
this month, "media reported that the Ministry of Defense, bypassing
tender procedures, voiced its intention to give two state enterprises –
the Ordnance Factory Board and Bharat Electronics a project for the
modernization of 693 Sarath IFVs –the localized version of the Soviet
BMP-2. Some of those vehicles were delivered from the USSR, while about
1,250 have been assembled in India. The value of the modernization
contract is estimated at $371 million."
Ultimately, Shvarev
suggested that on the one hand, the modernization project is a logical
decision, given the outdated condition of the country's park of IFVs.
"On the other hand, modernization is likely to again push the design of
the prospective vehicle off another several years," he said.
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