Russia has mastered the art of making new partnerships among nations
that in the 20th and much of the 21st century were and in some cases
still are traditional American allies. As the long dead realities of the
Cold War era become dramatically re-shaped by the age of multipolarity
and increased interconnectivity between global regions, it is helpful to
look at some of the countries with whom Russia is a close partner or
healthy friend in spite of their past or even presently close relations
with Washington.
1. Turkey
For centuries,
Russo-Turkish wars dominated the landscape of multiple global regions
including Black Sea coasts and hinterlands as well as the Balkan region.
But in the 1920s, the arrival of Ataturk and his Grand National
Assembly of Turkey looked to establish healthy ties with the equally
fledgling Soviet state.
Turkey was still in the midst of its own
civil crisis when USSR founder Lenin and Republic of Turkey founder
Ataturk signed an historic Friendship Treaty in Moscow which put to rest
centuries of Russo-Turkish antagonism. Indeed, so friendly was
Ataturk’s relationship with the USSR that when former World War era
triumvir Enver Pasha attempted to lead a Turkic revolt against the USSR
in central Asia, the so-called Basmachi movement, Ataturk continued to
renounce Enver Pasha and maintained good ties with Moscow.
Yet
however strong the friendship between Lenin’s USSR and Ataturk’s Turkey
was in the 1920s, by the end of the 1930s relations showed signs of
frost and by 1952, Turkey had joined NATO and become a close ally of the
United States.
Against this background, it seems almost surreal
that the shooting down of a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 in 2015 by “Turkish
forces” would perversely be the gateway to a historic rapprochement.
Indeed at the time, the downing of the Russian jet became the catalyst
for a severe downgrading of relations. But by 2016, facts had begun to
emerge that the order to shot at the plane came not from legitimate
Turkish forces. Furthermore, it was found that those responsible for the
downing were not legitimate Turkish soldiers. Instead, the Fethullah
Terror Organisation (FETO) had ordered the attack in an attempt to
destroy any possibility for future Russo-Turkish cooperation.
When
in 2016, FETO agents in the armed forces set their sights not on Russia
but on the legitimate government of Turkey, it was Russian intelligence
that warned President Erdogan of the attempted coup which allowed him
to re-group patriotic Turks who eventually saw off the FETO provocation.
Since
then, Russia and Turkey have not only re-established healthy ties but
have embarked on a uniquely meaningful partnership given the long
history of hostility between the two nations which dates back to before
the founding of the USA. This has been the case in spite of the brutal
assassination of Russia’s Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov by a FETO
agent in late 2016.
Today, Russia is a major supplier of energy
to Turkey while both countries work on the Turk Stream pipeline which
will bring Russian gas into southern Europe. Likewise, Russia has begun
construction on Turkey’s first ever nuclear power plant which will be on
line in approximately two years.
In Syria, Turkey and Russia
along with Iran work in the Astana format to bring a negotiated
settlement to the conflict while both countries have resolved many of
their initial differences over each side’s penultimate aim in the
conflict. With Turkey insistent that it will complete its purchase of
the Russian made S-400 missile defence system in spite of the threat of
US sanctions as a consequence, officials in Ankara have suggested that
if this means the US will renege on the deal to physically deliver F-35
fighter jets to Turkey, Russia’s Su-57 fifth generation fighters could
be an attractive alternative.
As the US continues to needlessly
antagonise Turkey on multiple fronts, Russia’s already healthy
partnership with Turkey is set only to expand as Erdogan and Putin have
developed a relationship based on trust, transparency and pragmatism
which is more than can be said of Ankara’s current state of relations
with Washington.
2. Israel
While Israel is often
correctly described as America’s closest ally, the fact of the matter is
that Russian relations with Tel Aviv are incredibly strong and growing
stronger. In an age where Tel Aviv and its lobbyists abroad accuse
multiple European societies of being antisemitic whilst even some
political factions in the US are accused of the same, Russia is uniquely
immune to this accusation. The fact of the matter is that while social
cohesion in the US and Europe appears to be undermined due to a
combination of radical liberalism, mass migration and economic decline,
Russia’s historically multi-ethnic and multi-religious state continues
to function without major incident. Russian and Israeli information
conduits have not allowed this to go unnoticed.
But beyond this
soft power victory for Russia in the eyes of Tel Aviv’s leaders, Russia
has actively courted Israel on the basis of the fact that many Russian
Jews now live there and also on the basis of Russia’s strategy of
anti-ideological/anti-sectarian balancing of Middle Eastern interests.
While
Russia remains partners with Syria, Palestine and Iran, Russia is
equally a partner of Israel. Today, Moscow and Tel Aviv are on the same
page regarding a withdrawal of Iranian and Hezbollah troops from Syria.
While both sides reached this point of agreement in different ways and
for different reasons, President Putin’s government has shown a
willingness to work with any partner in the region on a case-by-case
basis and Israel is no exception, not least because Vladimir Putin and
Benjamin Netanyahu share a good personal relationship.
Furthermore,
it must be noted that at a time when Russia and Israel continue to
cooperate ever more economically and in terms of regional security
dialogue – in spite of the fact that Israel is often more western in its
mentality than most geographically western regimes, Tel Aviv has never
joined the US, EU, Canada and Australia in anti-Russian sanctions nor in
accusing Russia of playing a negative role in the world. Instead, Tel
Aviv has officially adopted the 9th of May as a celebration of the
Soviet and allied victory over fascism in 1945 at a time when western
leaders shamefully boycott events commemorating the victory against
Hitler’s fascist empire.
Before one thinks that this partnership
has come at the expense of Russia’s older Syrian ally, one must forgo
such zero-sum dogmas and look objectively at what the Russo-Israeli
partnership has accomplished for Syria. Russian diplomats have persuaded
Tel Aviv to agree to tacitly accept the legitimacy of the Arab
Nationalist Syrian President Bashar al-Assad so long as Russia helps to
facilitate an orderly Iranian and Hezbollah withdrawal from the Arab
Republic. While this agreement is a compromise on both sides (as one
could expect), one must realise that after decades of trying to
undermine Ba’athist Syria, because of Russia and only because of Russia,
Israel is now in a position to agree to cease attacking its Syrian foe
for the fist time in decades. Such an agreement could scarcely have been
struck by any other mediator. In the fraught context of the Middle
East, this is as close to a win-win as one could hope for and moreover,
it is one that could preserve Syria’s government which after all was the
primary objective of Damascus in defending against a multilateral
hybrid war against its sovereignty that has raged since 2011.
3. Saudi Arabia
Saudi
Arabia remains America’s closest ally in the Arab world but under the
de-facto leadership of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, Riyadh is
rapidly engaging in attempts to expand the petro-Kingdom’s geo-economic
portfolio. This has resulted in excellent relations with both China and
Russia.
Rather than working against Saudi Arabia in a race to the
bottom in respect of energy prices, in 2016 Moscow decided to begin
working with Saudi Arabia to stabilise oil prices in a highly
competitive global market. The result has been the formation of the
OPEC+ format where Russia and Saudi Arabia are now the de-facto
trendsetters in the global price of oil. As Russia’s economy is more
diverse than that of Saudi Arabia, Russia is in effect the king-maker in
the OPEC+ format that Riyadh is keen to formalise in a would-be
“Super-OPEC” cartel.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia has courted
Russian expertise in the services of developing the new mega-city NEOM,
while Riyadh is simultaneously working with Russia on deals that would
see Russian companies build Saudi Arabia’s first nuclear power station.
Additionally, Riyadh continues to express interest in the purchase of
Russia’s S-400 missile systems.
In the 1970s, OPEC’s ability to
manipulate the price of oil could bring down major economies and
likewise, OPEC’s cooperation could ease economic tensions. Today, a
similar power is jointly in the hands of Saudi Arabia and its Russian
superpower partner. In spite of Washington’s close ties with multiple
Saudi officials – the era of Muhammad bin Salman is also the dawning of a
golden era in Russo-Saudi relations.
4. Pakistan
Pakistan’s
close relationship with the United States has never been an easy one.
In 1977, the US backed General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq led a coup against
the democratically elected Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, thus
ushering in a 1980s decade that Pakistanis remain divided about in terms
of Zia’s legacy to the country. In 1999, a similar anti-democratic coup
took place when General Pervez Musharraf took power.
The recent
Musharraf era remains a major talking point in this year’s Pakistani
General Election as the surging PTI opposition party in particular has
highlighted the grave suffering that Pakistanis have endured due to
Musharraf’s unwavering support for George W. Bush’s so-called “war on
terror”.
While Pakistan exposed itself to multiple terrorist
attacks during the course of America’s ongoing struggle to subdue
Afghanistan, today under Donald Trump, rather than thanking Pakistan for
doing everything Washington said during the “war on terror”, Trump has
instead cut over $200 billion worth of funds to Pakistan and has worked
to “greylist” Islamabad through the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
Throughout
this process, Pakistan has intensified its always strong relationship
with China. The Sino-Pakistan partnership looks to elevate the material
condition of the Pakistani people while helping to provide sustainable
models for internal development that the US never bothered to offer even
during the Bush-Musharraf years.
But while Pakistan’s very
visible partnership with China continues to dominate headlines, Pakistan
is simultaneously engaged in a new positive relationship with Russia.
Below is a lengthy discussion from geopolitical expert Andrew Korybko
charting the evolution of Russo-Pakistan relations in the modern era.
As
a strategically located south Asia power that now increasingly shares
similar goals to Moscow in respect of Afghanistan, it was inevitable
that an impetus for more intensified positive relations would develop.
With Moscow’s seemingly ‘long gone’ Soviet era partner India rapidly
becoming America’s key partner in a wider anti-China campaign in the
region, Russia now has all the more incentive to expand its relations
with Pakistan.
5. South Korea
Unlike Turkey and
Pakistan but very much like Saudi Arabia and Israel, South Korea retains
very healthy relations with the United States. However, the economic
realities of the 21st century have seen the Trump administration accuse
South Korea of “dumping” goods on US shores while Washington’s tariff
barrage has not been any friendlier to South Korea than it has to
traditional Asian rivals of the United States. With Seoul making a
formal complaint to the World Trade Organisation regarding Trump’s
protectionist onslaught, the north east Asian industrial powerhouse is
looking for and rapidly attaining new export markets including both
China and Russia.
South Korea was the first country to embrace
Russian President Putin’s proposals for tripartite economic cooperation
between the two Korean states and Russia. This proposal was made in the
autumn of 2017 during the nadir of the US-DPRK nuclear war of words.
Nevertheless, South Korean President Moon Jae-in remained fully
supportive of Putin’s proposals.
Less than a year later and
Russia is already in talks with South Korea to help construct modern
road, rail and gas pipeline links between Russian territory and South
Korea via the DPRK. Russia’s role in the Korean peace process has been
vital and President Moon’s recent endorsement of the future
Russia-Korean Economic Corridor during his recent trip to Moscow
confirms that so far as Seoul is concerned, a new era of peace through
prosperity on the Korean peninsula requires vital Russian participation
which President Putin has been happy to offer. For Moscow and Seoul
peace and prosperity are indelibly linked, while Russia’s historically
good relations with Pyongyang are seen as beneficial to a new reality
wherein Moscow’s relations with Seoul are likewise exceptionally strong.
6. The Philippines
The
election of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in 2016 was a
watershed in Manila’s relations with the wider world. Upon winning the
election, Duterte forsook what he called “the colonial mentality” and
warmly embraced new partnerships with China and Russia. Duterte has
praised Russia’s forthright dealings with The Philippines over security
issues. Indeed, Duterte was meeting with President Putin in 2017 when
the Daesh aligned Maute group laid siege to the Mindanao city of Marawi.
Understanding
Duterte’s sense of urgency, Russia offered The Philippines free arms
shipments to help the country to better fight terrorism and maintain
social order. Duterte’s 2017 trip to Moscow was crucial for helping to
establish a new era of Russo-Philippine relations that can and should
lead to a free trade agreement between ASEAN member The Philippines and
the de-facto Russian led Eurasian Economic Union.
While the two
countries do not have a long history of relations, Russia has proved it
is a reliable multipolar partner for Duterte’s manifold war on Takfiri
terrorism, political extremist terrorism and narco-terrorism.
Conclusion ::
Russia’s
ability to build new partnerships is objectively an impressive
diplomatic feat. Crucially though, it must be remembered that during
this same period, Russia has remained close to traditional Cold War
allies while mending fences with partnerships that were lost in the
midst of or just after the Cold War. Russia is a country that is a
partner with both Vietnam and China, Egypt and Turkey, Syria, Israel and
Palestine, Iran and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and to a more limited degree
than in the Cold War, with India, The Philippines and Cambodia,
Mozambique and South Africa and many others.
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