India's single-engine fighter program, worth $12 billion, is unlikely to
be "decided before 2019," analysts and officials say, even as the
Indian Air Force has decided to hold flight tests of Lockheed's F-16
Block 70 and Sweden's Gripen-E, the two aircraft competing in the
program.
Restricted expressions of interests were sent through
Indian embassies to "some overseas participants" to take part in the
program in October last year to elicit responses to produce
single-engine fighter aircraft in India. Lockheed Martin offered to
shift the assembly line of its F-16 Block 70, and Sweden offered to
build the Gripen-E aircraft in India with technology transfer.
The
F-16 fighter aircraft did not come up for discussion during last
month's summit talks on June 26 between Indian Prime Minister Narendra
Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, said a Ministry of
Defence official without commenting on the outcome of the talks.
However,
analysts and officials are skeptical whether the program would come to
an early decision. Some analysts even say the F-16 will never be bought
by the Indian Air Force, or IAF.
"There isn't now even the
slightest IAF interest in the F-16 Block 70 or any other variant," said
Bharat Karnad, professor of national security studies at Centre for
Policy Research.
When asked about the outcome of the flight
trials the IAF will conduct, Karnad said, "Nothing, it will take time
and delay any decision to beyond the 2019 election. Thereafter, the
medium multirole combat aircraft, or MMRCA, metrics will still apply,
and the F-16 will be rejected."
The F-16 and Gripen were both
rejected after flight trials during the 2007 MMRCA tender, which was
finally scrapped in 2014, leading to the outright purchase of France's
Rafale fighter aircraft worth $8.8 billion that was inked last year.
An
IAF official said that this time, only limited flight trials of the
F-16 and Gripen will take place, which will be restricted to the
upgraded components that were not in the 2007 MMRCA tender.
Daljit
Singh, a retired IAF air marshal and defense analyst said, "The F-16
and Gripen fielded during the MMRCA selection did not have all the
systems that the IAF would look for in single-engine fighters. AESA
radars and EW systems have recently been integrated on the F-16 Block 70
and Gripen E, and they would be required to be evaluated."
"The
time for evaluation would be lesser than the previous evaluation, as
only two fighters would be evaluated, and the majority of the
capabilities have already been tested," Singh added.
However,
analysts and officials are unanimous in their view that no decision on
the program is likely immediately. In addition, the program is to be
built in a newly announced Strategic Partners policy, which was notified
in June.
"The chances of seeing any program under this SP
program in the near future are slim til the MoD sorts out key issues
relating to IP, especially under an unfavorable 49 percent ownership
limit for foreign vendors," said Pushan Das, a defense analyst with
Observer Research Foundation.
Another IAF official said, "There
could be delays based on IAF asking for more and thereby delays due to
integration testing, etc."
"In my opinion, in the current
scenario with home-grown light combat aircraft, or LCA, getting produced
and with LCA Mark-1A and an order of 83 cleared by the government
already, I do not foresee an immediate decision on any other
single-engine fighter aircraft soon," the IAF official added.
defencenews