A conventional Chinese submarine docking in Karachi port last month
and spending one week there is a disturbing development for India.
While
warships are known to dock at foreign ports and sail away after a brief
stay and refuelling, submarines are a different ballgame. After
aircraft carriers, submarines are the most potent weapon in sea
warfare. The fully loaded and equipped Chinese submarine reportedly
spent a full week in Karachi port in the last week of May with entire crew of at least 65 on boardIronically, the Chinese submarine – a Yuan class 335 boat equipped
with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) which gives greater stealth and
longer duration under-sea capability – had docked in Karachi port on 22
May. This means that when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was wrapping up his maiden official visit to China (14-16 May) the Chinese were planning this provocative act.
The
political symbolism emanating from the Karachi event is simple. China
will stop at nothing in increasing its military might. There is nothing
wrong with this, as this is the right of every sovereign nation. India
too will have to get its act together and address vital defence issues
in double quick time to keep pace with China.
But the problem is
that the Karachi episode is a potential harbinger of things to come:
China increasing its defence cooperation with Pakistan, and both are
India’s arch-rivals.
Obviously the Chinese can’t be oblivious to
the enormous outrage the development would trigger in India considering
the fact that this was the first ever docking of a Chinese submarine in a
Pakistani port.
Without being alarmist, one thing can safely be
said in this context. The development accentuates fears of India’s worst
case scenario: the joining of hands by the only two neighbours who have
fought wars with India since its independence, and projecting a pincer
attack threat.
There is nothing much that India can do here. At
best India can politely tell China that it is an unnecessary manoeuvre
which is best avoidable in future. As for Pakistan, India cannot tell
even that much knowing the anti-India mindset of Pakistani security and
strategic establishment.
Even a country like Sri Lanka under the
leadership of pro-China president Mahinda Rajapaksa had ignored protests
from India when a Chinese submarine had docked in Sri Lanka, and
another similar incident had happened last year. India heaved a sigh of
relief as the new Sri Lankan president Maithripala Sirisena, who
defeated Rajapaksa in presidential polls earlier this year, announced
that his government won’t allow Chinese submarines to dock in Sri Lankan
ports.
It is highly unlikely that China would be sensitive to
Indian concerns. In any case, no formal reaction from India has come
thus far. It is well known that India moves with extreme caution in its
dealings with China. Though India might have taken up the matter with
China through diplomatic channels, it is unlikely that the Modi
government would take this issue in the public domain with a formal
reaction.
The only way forward for the Modi government is to
expedite the delivery schedule of six submarines that the French are
building in India and fast-track the process of acquisition of as many
more submarines.
The India-France submarine project is moving at a
slow pace and the first of the submarine is expected to be delivered
only towards the end of next year. The completion of construction of the
rest is likely to stretch up to 2020.The Modi government has recently come out with a Request for Information
(RFI), inviting tenders for six more submarines. But it is a long-drawn
process and given the pace at which the bureaucracy works, the boats
won’t be available before 2025. The government has allocated $8.1
billion for the six submarines to be acquired. There is a strong fear of
cost overruns if the project is kept hanging, as it usually happens in
India.India presently has just 13 operational submarines at
present as against China’s 60. Pakistan, a much smaller country, has
eight operational submarines as of now. China is racing ahead in adding
more submarines to its fleet and should have 75 submarines by 2020.
What
is required off PM Modi is that he needs to do away with the red tape
and expedite beefing up India’s submarine strength. This is a worrisome
scenario. PM Modi needs to think out of the box. Ten days later he will
be off to Russia for attending BRICS summit. The submarine issue should
figure high on the talking points when he holds one-to-one talks with
Russian president Vladimir Putin.
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