The Case of Indian Acquisition of Mig-29s: Why Buy a 40-Year Old Aircraft?

By Lt Gen VK Saxena (Retd)

It was reported in the media in Apr 2019 that the Indian Air force (IAF) was in talks with Russia to purchase 21 MiG-29 combat jets which were actually built in late 1980s for the then Soviet Air Force but were never assembled and flown and hence are lying unused.

This article analyses the above deal and brings out the compulsions of the IAF to in go in for an aircraft built 40 years ago, and lying mothballed till now. It also flags some critical imperatives which need to be addressed as a matter of operational expediency sooner than later.

REVISITING THE COMBAT CAPABILITIES OF MIG-29

MiG-29 Fulcrum designed by the Mikoyan Design Bureau, Russia is a twin-engine air superiority fighter which was initially optimised for air-to-air combat role. It was inducted in the Soviet Air Force in 1982 and in the Indian Air Force (IAF) during the period 1986-1991. MiG-29 is still a formidable and a lethal war machine which acts as a second line of defence for the IAF after its Su-30 MKI.

The aircraft has twin RD33 turbofan engines capable of delivering enough thrust to make it a Mach 2+ aircraft at altitude. Its ferry range extends to 2,100 km with a service ceiling of 18,000 meters. The aircraft is optimised both for short range air-to-air-combat, as well as, for Beyond Visual Range (BVR) engagements. For the first role, it has R-60 infrared (IR) homing missile with a range of 8 km, for the latter, it has two Air-to-Air Missiles (AAMs); R-27 Vympl in two range versions of 40 and 80 km and a shorter range R-73 AAM effective up to 30 km.

The aircraft is equipped with IR Search and Track (IRST) Sensors to detect track and engage targets emitting IR radiations. It has a three axes autopilot and enjoys high manoeuvrability even though it does not have ‘Fly-by-Wire’ controls like all contemporary fighters of today.

MiG-29 can execute 9g manoeuvres similar to F-16s and all modern fighters. The aircraft is being operated by 30 nations across the world.

In 2007, the MiG-29 fleet of the IAF was put through a comprehensive upgrade by Russia at a cost of $865 Million. Besides new avionics kits, the upgrade involves the replacement of its outdated N019 Topaz air-intercept radar with a new Zhuk -AME Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar with a range of 160km.

Besides this, the upgraded version (called MiG-29 UPG) has enhanced BVR capabilities, an air-to–air refuelling capability for higher endurance, higher fuel capacity extending the ferry range of the aircraft by 40 per cent from 2,100 to 3,000 km, a new generation weapon control system with a capability to launch Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs), capability to launch subsonic anti-ship missiles, a higher capability RD 33 turbofan engine, improved cockpit ergonomics featuring an enhanced Hands on Throttle and Stick (HOTAS) design. HOTAS refers to a capability in which a pilot can fly the aircraft without having to remove their hands from the controls.

This combined with the Head up Displays (HUDs) enables the pilot to focus on flying the aircraft, manipulating its sensors and engaging the targets rather than looking for controls in the cockpit. HUD is a transparent display that presents data to a pilot which he can see right in front of him without having to look down at flying instruments.

THE PROPOSED DEAL

In February 2019, a team of senior IAF officers under an Air Marshal which went to Russia to examine the aircraft reported that the airframes were ready and could be delivered in a period of 18 months. The team also reported that they found the aircraft in excellent condition.

Russia has promised to upgrade the above aircraft to UPG standard. Also the price-tag of each upgraded aircraft is reported to be between 285-300 Crore ($40-42 million).

COMPULSIONS OF THE IAF

Currently, the IAF is facing serious challenges as to its depleting combat squadrons’ strength. The decision (read rationale) to go in for the MIG-29 at this point in time needs to be seen in the light of the above challenges. The authorised strength of the IAF is 42 squadrons, a figure it has never touched. The highest it has gone is up to 39.5 squadrons in early 1990s. There was a time when the fighter aircraft ratio between India and Pakistan was almost 3:1. This edge is currently down to 1.4:1. Assuming that the IAF reaches its authorised strength, the said ratio should settle down to about 2:1.

Even the current strength of 31 Squadrons of the IAF needs to be analysed on several fronts in order to correctly assess the challenges hidden behind this number.

The basic issue is that out of the 31 it is only about half the squadrons which are very potent, while the others half are riddled with multiple problems. The potent front-line combat strength is represented by 11 squadrons of Su-30 MK1 (242 aircraft), three squadrons (69 aircrafts) of MiG-29 and three squadrons (49 aircrafts) of Mirage 2000.

Su-30 MKI is indeed a front line air superiority fighter. 40 of these aircraft are getting upgraded by Russia. Such an upgrade will include new AESA radars, onboard computers, electronic warfare (EW) systems and the ability to carry the BrahMos -A supersonic cruise missile.

Mirage 2000 is also a front-line multirole fighter. India signed a $2.1 billion contract with Thales and Dassault Aviation in July 2011 for the upgrade of 51 Mirage 2000 to Mirage 2000 -5 Mk 2 standards. This includes incorporation of night vision capable glass cockpit, upgraded navigation and IFF systems, advanced multi-mode multi-layered radar, fully integrated EW suit besides several other features.

Apart from the above 17 squadrons, the balance 14 comprising of Jaguars (six squadrons, 139 aircraft), MiG-27s (reduced to 2 squadrons, 40 aircraft) and MiG-21s mostly Bison version (six squadrons, 121 aircraft) have issues related to vintage and challenges being faced in the upgrade.

Talking of MiG-21s, the retirement date for the upgraded MiG-21 Bison was earlier projected as 2014-17. This got changed to 2019 and now stands at 2021-22.

The Jaguar fleet which started induction in 1979-80 is also approaching its retirement. It was reported that the ongoing upgrade incorporating the new nav-attack system called Display Attack Ranging Intertial Navigation or DARIN III is also facing severe delays. The serviceability of the 118 jaguar fleet is a concern due to obsolescence, non-availability of spares and the assembly line of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) having been shut down.

As regards MiG-27s, though the aircraft started induction in the eighties (last HAL license-produced inducted in 1997), it had fundamental flaws with its R-29 B 300 turbojet engines besides 70’s era avionics With a history of multiple crashes, the last of MiG-27 ML was retired on December 29, 2017, leaving only two upgraded MiG-27 UPG in active inventory which are also due for retirement in a few years from now.

This explains the desperate need for the IAF to make up for the platform losses through fresh inductions.

Unfortunately, on the fresh procurement front, the situation is far from desired. 36 years after the approval of Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) project in 1983, the induction of Tejas is badly delayed. A huge order for 324 aircraft (Tejas Mk 1 -40, Tejas Mk 1A – 83 and Tejas Mk 2 – 201) is many years into the future. As per HAL’s assertion 123 Tejas will be provided by 2024-25.

The requirement of Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) in the much debated MMRCA deal was projected as 126.

However, on firm order are only 36 Rafael Jets which are planned to be inducted in a two year span staring 2019. The Defence Minister has stated that the first jet will arrive in September 2019.

Be that as it may, it leaves a huge void of 90 aircraft in this class.

Talking of voids, it was reported in July 2018 that Ministry of Defence has issued a Request For information (RFI) for 110 fighter aircraft of which 15 per cent aircraft were to be in a flyaway state while the balance 85 per cent were to be made in India by a Strategic Partner/Indian Production Agency with indigenous content of not less than 45 per cent.

While six vendors have responded to the RFI, the selection process is likely to get traction only after the new Govt is in place though multiple rounds of meetings have taken plane with foreign vendors. That this induction is at least 4-5 years into the future is a fair estimate.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

Out of the twin-track approach of upgrade of existing platforms and procurement of new, only the former has progressed. There is an urgent need to revive the latter, if the IAF is not to sink any further than the already projected 26-27 squadrons in 8-10 years from now.

Tejas is badly delayed. HAL claim of 123 by 2024 is unlikely. A huge order of 324 aircraft is in the pipeline. Mk 2 must be realised by HAL, Mk 1A expedited.

Selection process for 110 fighter jets must pick up speed now as the new Govt settles down.

Recurring delays in DARIN III upgrade for Jaguar must get addressed.

Taking everything into account, it makes ample sense to acquire additional MiG-29s from Russia, even if they are more than three decades old and IAF needs to pursue the case expeditiously.

This was published by our partner India Strategic in July 2019.

SLDinfo

First batch of six Rafale jets likely to arrive in July 27 , will be placed in Ambala

India is likely to receive by July 27 the first batch of six Rafale fighter jets which are expected to significantly boost the combat capability of the Indian Air Force, people familiar with the development said.

The IAF has been on a high alert for the last two weeks in view of escalation in tension with China following clashes between troops of the two countries in Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh in which 20 Indian Army personnel were killed. The two armies are locked in a bitter standoff in the region for seven weeks.

On June 2, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh held a telephonic conversation with his French counterpart Florence Parly during which she conveyed that the Rafale jets will be delivered to India as scheduled notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic in France.

Military officials, on the condition of anonymity, said the arrival of the Rafale jets will significantly enhance the IAF's overall combat capability and will send a clear message to India's "adversaries".

When asked about the matter, the IAF did not comment.

The first squadron of the aircraft will be stationed at Ambala air force station, considered one of the most strategically located bases of the IAF.

India had signed an inter-governmental agreement with France in September 2016 for procurement of 36 Rafale fighter jets at a cost of around Rs 58,000 crore.

The aircraft is capable of carrying a range of potent weapons. European missile maker MBDA's Meteor beyond visual range air-to-air missile and Scalp cruise missile will be the mainstay of the weapons package of the Rafale jets

Meteor is the next generation of BVR air-to-air missile (BVRAAM) designed to revolutionise air-to-air combat. The weapon has been developed by MBDA to combat common threats facing the UK, Germany, Italy, France, Spain and Sweden

Besides the missile systems, the Rafale jets will come with various India-specific modifications, including Israeli helmet-mounted displays, radar warning receivers, low-band jammers, 10-hour flight data recording, infra-red search and tracking systems among others

The IAF has already completed preparations, including readying required infrastructure and training of pilots, to welcome the fighter aircraft.

The second squadron of Rafale will be stationed at Hasimara base in West Bengal. The IAF spent around Rs 400 crore to develop infrastructure like shelters, hangars and maintenance facilities at the two bases

Out of the 36 Rafale jets, 30 will be fighter jets and six will be trainers. The trainer jets will be twin-seater and they will have almost all the features of the fighter jets.

The Congress had raised questions on the deal, including on rates of the aircraft, and alleged corruption, but the government had rejected the charges.

Economic times

India moves air defence missile systems into Ladakh

Amid heightened Chinese fighter aircraft and helicopter activities along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the Indian armed forces have deployed their advanced very quick-reaction surface-to-air missile defence systems in the Eastern

Ladakh

"As part of the ongoing build-up in the sector, the air defence systems of both Indian Army and the Indian Air Force have been deployed in the sector to prevent any misadventure by the Chinese Air Force fighter jets or the People's Liberation Army choppers there," government sources told ANI.
In the last couple of weeks, the Chinese forces have brought in heavy air superiority aircraft like the Sukhoi-30 and its strategic bombers to the rear locations which have been detected flying near the Indian territory maintaining the 10 km plus distance from the boundary.Sources said that India is also very shortly getting a highly capable air defence system from a friendly country which can be deployed and the entire area can be taken care of to prevent any enemy flying there.
suitable for deployment in the high mountainous terrain.

The fighter aircrafts of the Indian Air Force have also been very active in the Eastern Ladakh area as they are coming into the troubled theatre fully loaded after taking off from the nearby air bases in the plains.

The surveillance gaps have also been plugged and no enemy aircraft would be able to go undetected from the eyes of defence forces.

Soon after the Chinese started transgressing into Indian territory in May first week, the Indian Air Force had sent its Su-30MKIs to Eastern Ladakh after they were found close to entering the Indian air space there. The Chinese choppers have been coming frequently up to their claim lines in the Ladakh sector including a construction site close to the Galwan valley there.


TOI

Russia to deliver defence equipment in two to three months.

During Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh`s Russia visit earlier this week, India had requested for defence supplies, mostly daily requirements for the armed forces.

New Delhi: Russia will deliver defence equipment in two to three months on India's request and is waiting for an official list to be handed over from New Delhi. During Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh's Russia visit earlier this week, India had requested for defence supplies, mostly daily requirements for the armed forces.

Russia was positive on the request and assured of early delivery. The Russian government sources said, "We will soon get the exact list and we will try our best to deliver at earliest, most probably within 2-3 months."

While the request is for daily requirement defence equipment, the sources said that there was no urgent request from India for the delivery of S-400 Triumf missile system or Sukhoi Su-30MKIs. The Russian side has already "sped up" the delivery "as much as possible" but for that kind of a "sophisticated system, we are making it as early as we can, because India's Ministry of Defence long back requested us to speed up," the source explained. 

During the visit, Singh had met the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov. After the meeting, Singh had said, "All our proposals have received a positive response from the Russian side. I am fully satisfied with my discussions." The Russian side also assured that the ongoing contracts "will be maintained and not just maintained, in a number of cases will be taken forward in a shorter time", he added.

The Defence Minister was on a three-day visit to Moscow from June 22 at the invitation of the Russian Defence Minister to attend the 75th Anniversary of Victory Day Parade. The parade saw the participation of 75 members of the Indian contingent.

Zeenews

Deal for 114 fighters critical for IAF to retain edge against China’

Despite the Indian Army announcing that it had agreed with China to begin mutually 'disengaging' from contentious areas across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, tension remains high following the clash on June 15.

Reports and satellite imagery have raised concerns that China is increasing its troop concentrations in the region. The Indian Air Force began deploying fighter aircraft and helicopters to forward air bases in the region a week ago. But discourse on a potential conflict with China has mostly been dominated by a focus on ground forces. The potential use of air power on the border with China has been a subject of debate ever since the Jawaharlal Nehru government decided against deploying Indian Air Force fighter and attack aircraft against the invading Chinese forces in 1962.

The Observer Research Foundation, a premier think tank, on Friday published a paper authored by retired air vice marshal Arjun Subramaniam, who is presently a strategic affairs commentator. In the paper titled, Air Power in Joint Operations: A Game Changer in a Limited Conflict with China, Subramaniam argues there is a realisation in the Indian policy making establishment "that air power could emerge as a key element in future India–China conflicts". As the basis for this, Subramaniam cited the Narendra Modi government's move to fast-track purchase of 33 fighter aircraft—21 MiG-29 jets and 12 Su-30MKI fighters—from Russia. The purchase of these jets had been in the pipeline for several months.

Subramaniam declared, "A greater debate is required on the optimal ways of leveraging Indian air power on/across the LAC, should situations escalate beyond face-offs". Subramaniam's paper also refers to the findings of a study of Harvard Kennedy School that had claimed that India had military advantages against China in a potential conflict. Subramaniam disputes some of the findings of the Harvard study on the Indian Air Force having more 'fourth-generation' fighters in the region than China.

"The Harvard paper engages in a bit of ‘India overreach’ by suggesting that the IAF’s current inventory of fourth-generation fighters (Mirage-2000s, MiG-29 UPG and SU-30 MKI) are more than a match for the PLAAF SU-30s, J-10s and J-11s. This might be qualitatively true, but quantitatively, the Harvard paper’s estimation is not corroborated by those of other studies," Subramaniam writes in the Observer Research Foundation paper. He also dispute the "The Harvard report’s suggestion that the PLAAF would allocate and train barely 15 percent of its fourth- and fifth-generation fighters for operations in an India scenario".


Citing another study, Subramaniam estimates the Chinese Air Force's "current inventory of fourth-generation platforms could have crossed 850, or about 40 squadrons. One can project that this figure will go up to approximately 50 squadrons of fourth-generation fighters by 2025". Referring to the Chinese Air Force's induction of the J-20 stealth fighter, Subramaniam argues the Indian Air Force will lose the "qualitative "advantage of the SU-30 MKI and the limited number of Rafales" in this decade.

Subramaniam also acknowledges China's inventory of H-6 strategic bombers, which can fire cruise missiles at ranges of 500km or more. The Indian Air Force does not have a comparable aircraft or weapons.

Subramaniam was cautious about the capabilities of the indigenously built HAL Tejas fighter. The Indian Air Force is expected to buy 83 Tejas MK1A fighters. Subramaniam notes the LCA will offer modest capabilities. He notes, "It is too early to assess whether the LCA MK-1A will be able to penetrate the air-defence network on the Tibetan Plateau. For now, it must be assumed that they will primarily be used in favourable conditions—to hold the line on the western sector, and provide local air defence and limited offensive support around the LAC."

Subramaniam terms as critical the Indian Air Force's plan to buy 114 multirole fighters, at an estimated cost of $15 billion. He writes, "The acquisition of the 114 MRFA aircraft with high-end fourth-generation capability could be critical for the IAF to maintain its combat edge over the PLAAF, since neither the LCA MK-1A nor the proposed MK-2 are likely to supplement the SU-30 MKIs and the Rafale as its vanguard". Last month, Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat caused a flutter when he hinted the proposed deal to buy 114 fighter jets could be shelved in favour of buying more Tejas jets.

Subramaniam paints a worrying picture for the Indian Air Force by 2030, in terms of numbers. He notes, "Even in the best-case situation of the timely induction of all LCA MK-IA aircraft, emergency purchase of the SU-30s and MiG-29s, the two Rafale squadrons, and up to six multirole fighter Aircraft (MRFA) squadrons (should the pending 114 aircraft contract go through), the IAF will at best have 32–34 fighter squadrons by 2030." This is in comparison to China's PLAAF, which he estimates will have around 50 squadrons of “strong fourth-generation fighters" and 10 squadrons of modest fifth-generation J-20-class aircraft.

Subramaniam notes the Indian Air Force could still retain a numerical advantage in operations in the Tibet region thanks to its network of 10-12 airbases. He writes, "However, a combination of the dense air defence cover, superior EW and space-based intelligence, and the availability of large numbers of the J-20 fifth-generation aircraft will pare the current qualitative advantage of the IAF, unless there is the speedy induction of the 114 MRFA aircraft

The week 

US shifting military to face Chinese threat to India and Southeast Asia: Mike Pompeo

The Chinese threat to India and Southeast Asia is one of the reasons the United States is reducing its troop presence in Europe, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Thursday in response to a question at the Brussels Forum virtual conference.

Pompeo was asked why the US had reduced the number of troops it has based in Germany. The US Secretary of State said that if US troops were no longer there, it was because they were being moved to face other places. The actions of the Chinese Communist Party meant there were “threats to India” and countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and the South China Sea. The US military is “postured appropriately” to meet these “challenges of our time”, he said.

Pompeo noted that the Trump administration had carried out a long overdue strategic posture review of the US military two years ago. The US had carried out a fundamental relook at the threats it faced and how it should allocate its resources, including intelligence and military and cyber.

As part of this exercise, Pompeo said it was felt that the capacity to deter Russia or other adversaries wasn’t determined any longer “by having a bunch of folks garrisoned some place”.

“So we really went back to fundamentally relook at what is the nature of the conflict, what is the nature of the threat and how should we allocate our resources. Whether that is our resources in the intelligence community, our resources in the air force, the marines. our broad set of allocations of the security apparatus,” he said.

“The decision that the President made with respect to Germany is an outcome of a collective set of decisions about how we are going to posture our resources around the world,” he said, pointing that this would imply that there would be fewer American resources in some places.

“There will be other places - I just talked about the threat from the Chinese Communist Party - ... threats to India, threats to Vietnam, threats to Malaysia, Indonesia, South China Sea challenges, the Philippines. We are going to make sure we are postured appropriately to counter the PLA (People’s Liberation Army). We think that is the challenge of our time and we are going to make sure we have resources in place to do that,” he said.

Earlier, he announced the formation of a US-European dialogue on China so that the Atlantic alliance could have a “common understanding of the threat posed by China”. Pompeo said the two sides needed “a collective data set” on China’s action so the two could take action together.

Speaking about the Chinese threat, he cited the “bloody border confrontation with India,” Beijing’s South China Sea activity and its predatory economic policies as evidence.

Asked whether Huawei was part of the Chinese “surveillance state,” Pompeo said Chinese security force personnel worked on the top floor of the company headquarters and Chinese law required Huawei to pass any data, including personal data, to the Chinese Communist Party whenever the latter asked. He said there was more evidence that he could not state in public.

The day before the US foreign minister had tweeted: “The tide is turning toward trusted 5G vendors and away from Huawei. The world’s leading telecom companies-Telefonica, Orange, Jio, Telstra, and many more-are becoming ‘Clean Telcos.’ They are rejecting doing business with tools of the CCP surveillance state, like Huawei.”

Hindustan times 

Navy Inducts Indigenously Developed Torpedo Decoy

Anti - Submarine Warfare capability of the Indian Navy has received a major boost on Friday with the conclusion of a contract for Advanced Torpedo Decoy System Maareech capable of being fired from all frontline warships.

Design & Development of this anti-torpedo decoy system has been undertaken indigenously DRDO labs (NSTL and NPOL).

Bharat Electronics Limited, a Defence PSU, would undertake the production of this decoy system. The prototype of this system installed onboard a nominated naval platform had successfully completed all user evaluation trials and demonstrated the features as per the Naval Staff Qualification Requirements.

This induction not only stands testimony to the joint resolve of the Indian Navy and DRDO towards indigenous development of Defence technology, but has also given a major fillip to the Government's 'Make in India' initiative and the country's resolve to become 'Atmanirbhar' in niche technology.

DDnews 

Naval group in talks with both MDL and L&T for submarine project, says exclusivity needed

Leading naval manufacturer Naval Group has confirmed that it is in touch with both the Indian shipyards shortlisted for the ambitious P 75I submarine contract but believes that an exclusive arrangement needs to be worked out to take ahead the project.

The Rs 45,000 crore project has recently moved onto the next step with the shortlisting of two Indian shipyards – MDL and L&T – and five foreign companies they can collaborate with to acquire design and manufacturing technology.

The project is being processed on the Strategic Partnership model that will require the winning Indian company to manufacture six submarines in India. However, given that only two Indian shipyards are shortlisted, they have a choice of multiple foreign collaborators, leading to a potential clash of commercial interests.

Naval Group, which has manufactured the Scorpene class of submarines in India with MDL, says that the `industrially secure way’ would be to have an exclusive arrangement with just one Indian Strategic Partner.

“An exclusive arrangement with one SP might give more time to both the Original equipment manufacturer and the SP to prepare a thorough and exhaustive response to the RFP and thus provide Indian Navy with an offer with best possible solutions to all the identified requirements and minimum risks for the program over the long term. Indeed, exclusivity with a shipyard may be best cost effective and industrially secure way of responding to P75(I),” Alain Guillou, Senior Executive Vice President, Naval Group has said.

The senior executive said that the company was in touch with both the Indian companies since the shortlisting. “Like many other OEMs, we are having discussions with both SPs (L&T and MDL), who have been shortlisted rightly by the experienced Indian Navy and the government. MDL remains at core of Indian naval ship and submarine building while L&T is undoubtedly one of the biggest and qualified Indian national industrial for several sectors including strategic naval projects,” he said.

Besides the Naval Group, TKMS (Germany), Navantia (Spain), Rubin Design Bureau (Russia) and DSME (South Korea) have been shortlisted for the mega project. The next stage will be preparation of techno-commercial bids by the Indian companies in collaboration with a foreign partner of their choosing.

There are still doubts however if the foreign players will need to make offers with both Indian yards or can choose to have an exclusive arrangement with just one. “As OEM, we are not in position to comment and we shall follow the process as per SP guidelines. However it is true that the time required and the associated costs to make an offer of such magnitude are very high, sometimes as high as several millions of Euros. In addition to this the confidentiality of data related to the performances and subsequent “Chinese wall” arrangement to deal between partners will cost time, dedications and efforts of all parties involved,” Guillou said.

While technically, all five foreign technology collaborators have an equal chance of forming a winning partnership with the Indian company, the contest is expected to be a straight face off between the French Naval Group and Russia’s Rubin Design Bureau.

If the process goes smoothly, the final winner could be shortlisted within two years after an exhaustive trial and evaluation exercise. However, complications in the future include the ability of foreign collaborators to adhere with Indian conditions for technology transfer, delivery timelines and the responsibility for performance.

Economic times 

Is Indian Air Force’s Current Capability Enough to ‘Fight’ China?

The basis of building the Indian Air Force (IAF) till about the mid eighties was mainly with the focus on our western adversary, since other nations sharing a border with India were neither hostile nor held significant martial clout in the region, all but China. For some strange reason, for a very long time, we decided not to talk about the ‘Red threat’ and ‘war gaming’ in India which was limited to to Pakistan. Despite having fought a war and numerous border skirmishes, it is only during recent times did the military strategy of India start a new chapter, protagonising our northern neighbour.
‘Look East’ Is IAF’s Flavour of the Season

The IAFs’ philosophy towards China was largely guided by the government’s eagerness or rather the lack of it, to allow it to spread its wings, a fact corroborated by the information that, till very recently, there were no SAM units or credible radar units east of the 82 degree longitude. The entire eastern command of the IAF, in the bygone era, based its war plans on the mobility of Air Defence assets, which were to reach it from the western sector during hostilities. The efficacy of this plan was never put to test in totality, and remained only on paper.

Cut to the present day, and it is a different story. ‘Look east’ is the IAF’s flavour of the season.

On land, the MiG-21 FLs (the oldest of the lot) in a training role, have given way to the Sukhoi Su-30MKIs, the airfields have started to get their wish list of infrastructure, the command, now has some credible SAMs – and the army probably can now look up to the cover provided by the Apaches. It would be unjustified not to mention that half of the Rafales would find their home here in the near future.
IAF’s War Philosophy

The war philosophy of the IAF is to decentralise: Individual commands fight the war in their Area of Responsibility, guided by the directions of Air Headquarters. Certain strategic target systems identified and in need of higher clearances, prior to attack, are governed by the decision of the central body at Delhi. Other than these, the Air Officer Commanding in Chief of the respective commands is the sole responsible figure for the conduct of the war there. Adjacent commands have their own tie-ups for edge areas, giving the whole game a seamless fabric.

Some strategic assets are controlled by Air HQ and allotted to Commands on the basis of need and requests.

The picture across the border needs a little deliberation at this point. Thanks to geography, we have a natural barrier protecting us from the dragon’s breath. This statement sounds like a “medieval excuse taken from a kindergarten history book” but as far as air warfare is concerned, it holds good even today. The topography of the land is perhaps what has prevented China from following up on one or a few of its frequent border skirmishes with air support. The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is an enviable force by world standards; it is no longer the airforce which projected itself as a substantial mass of second hand technology yet to reach the industry standards.
Chinese Air Force’s Capability

Over the years, the PLAAF, covertly and overtly, has gone on to adopt technology which has produced world standard weapon systems.

The Chengdu J-10s and the Shenyang J-11s – which would soon be the backbone of the PLAAF interceptor force – are both based on the Sukhoi Su-27 and the Sukhoi Su-30. Further, the ones to come up are the Chengdu J-20, and on the drawing board, the Shenyang FC-31also known as the J-31.

This, however, may not always be true, for a stealth aircraft meant for invisible raids on the enemy’s assets, the J-20 has canards – a type of tail plane but fitted in the front – used to increase manoeuvrability of the aircraft, leading one to suspect that a interceptor role is also in the lines even at the cost of foregoing some stealth. Add to this the Russian Su-35, twenty of which were bought off the shelf, suspected to be a feeder line for engine, reverse engineering technology.

Is Chinese Base ‘Safe’ From IAF Fighters?

Any technology needs to be backed by a lot of other factors for its success – timing and location are a couple of important ones. Most of the major airfields that China’s PLAAF has, that can be used against India – six in all – Konga Zong, Hoping, Gar Gunsa, Linzhi, Kashgar and Hotan, are beyond the elevation of 3000 metres, hence cutting down load-carrying capacity of operating aircraft to almost half.

However, this aspect does not really matter in the air defence of the base. What matters is, in this hilly region, for an air defence system to be effective, detection and identification must be done well in time.

Thus, the Dragon’s lair may not be safe from Indian Air Force fighters, if planned and timed correctly. Another natural advantage these bases have is the distance from Indian airfields – most are beyond the reach of legacy aircraft and require air-to-air refuelling capability (AAR), a fact which even the PLAAF too has to reconcile with, while attacking India.

Why IAF May Have An ‘Advantage’ Over China

Most of its famed bases are located far too inland to serve any practical purpose for an attack on India, let alone defending its border bases. To add to the problem, the few bases that the PLAAF has, which concerns India, are not mutually supportive – if one is attacked, the other does not come in its defence – something the IAF bases enjoy. The distance between Hotan and its nearest support, Kashgar, is approx 400-500 km, well beyond the supporting distance with present-day technology.

SWOT Analysis of Indian Air Force Amid India-China Face-Off

Analysing the SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunity, threat) it would be safe to say that most of the IAF action during hostilities would be air defence and action in support of the army – Counter Surface Force Operations (CSFO). There would, of course, be airfield raids by the IAF, but not to the extent of what we perceive from the three major wars with Pakistan.

Defending our own airbases would also take some effort. The Surface-to-Surface Ballistic Missile (SSBM) force of China, as long as it is with the conventional warhead, is a major cause of worry for the IAF, but not an apocalyptic scenario. Tip the rocket with a nuke and the entire story changes and becomes unpredictable – hopefully this scenario will be avoided by both sides.
The PLAAF may require a large portion of the IAF’s assets to contain it, but that would mainly be because of the huge perimeter both countries share.

The need of the hour for the IAF would definitely be to upgrade and build up potential, not only against the Red Dragon but also catering for misgivings by the western neighbour when engaged with China.

The challenge is to deal with both simultaneously.

The quint

As India-China talks continue, 1,600 workers to join road projects in Ladak

As the militaries of India and China make efforts to disengage from the standoff points to defuse the tension prevailing for nearly two months on the border in eastern Ladakh, over 1,600 workers are on their way to Leh to rejoin the construction projects of Border Roads Organisation in Ladakh.

Commanders of Indian Army and Chinese PLA are doing multiple meetings to keep the situation under control on the disputed border. Even on Monday, a meeting between brigade commanders happened close to the patrolling point in Galwan valley.

A special train with workers from Jharkhand reached Udhampur in Jammu on Monday morning, who will go further to Leh and other areas in Ladakh, according to a senior government official.

It is notable that the road construction by India has always triggered the face-offs between Indian Army and the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), including the recent ones. The latest troop build-up by Indian Army and PLA at multiple locations on Galwan valley was also due to Chinese objection to Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) Road in Ladakh, which provides access to Depsang plain, Galwan valley and Karakoram pass.

This strategic road was completed by the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) exactly a year ago. The road is opposite to the Aksai Chin plateau, which is under the occupation of China. Galwan river, which is a 1962 flashpoint that saw Chinese aggression, has once again become a flashpoint between the two sides.

Despite objection from China, India has already made it clear that infrastructure build-up along border, including Ladakh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, will continue.

Construction activities of the BRO were affected due to nationwide lockdown because of COVID-19 pandemic. Several special trains have been planned to bring back labourers from states like Jharkhand, Bihar and Odisha to restart the construction activities on the remote areas of border. Earlier this month, the Jharkhand state government expressed its displeasure over payment and other welfare facilities provided to migrant labourers by BRO.

In response, BRO headquarters responded to the Jharkhand government by detailing all perks and other medical facilities to migrant labourers. After intervention by the Central and state governments to provide employment opportunities to migrant labourers, officials of BRO signed an agreement with the state government finishing the role of middlemen in the registration process.

Five more such trains carrying migrant labourers from districts of Pakur, Sahibganj, Dumka and Godda will leave from Dumka this month after the mandatory registration of labourers is completed at their respective districts. BRO will recruit over 11,800 workers from Jharkhand for critical projects.

Building roads leading to the disputed Line of Actual Control, considered as the world's largest disputed or unresolved border, has been a fraught exercise for the government. India-China border roads on Himalayan frontier were conceptualised in the late 1990s by a consultative group called the China Studies Group, subsequently cleared at the highest level of the Cabinet Committee on Security and given the go-ahead for construction in 1999.

Till then, Indian forces were following an old military belief that if roads were metalled, they would provide easier mobility to the enemy (Chinese) in the event of hostilities.

Eventually in 2012, the government identified 73 roads of 3,812 km length for construction along India-China border.

While asking for higher budgetary allocation for the Border Roads Organisation, an arm of the ministry of defence, a parliamentary panel in March 2019 flagged the ICBRs (India-China border roads) as a crucial element in “effective border management, security and development of infrastructure in inaccessible areas adjoining the China Border”.

BRO is constructing 61 India-China Border Roads with total length of 3,346 km (across the Himalayan frontier) along the country’s northern border with China, spread across Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Sikkim, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

The Cabinet Committee on Security last year had also cleared the construction of 44 more “strategically important roads” along the India-China border with cost of around Rs 21,040 crore.

The overall budget allocation of BRO between 2009 to 2014-15 generally remained stagnant at around Rs 4,000 crore. But in last couple of years, there has been a huge jump in the budgetary allocation of BRO, reaching Rs.5,400 crore in 2018, and going up to Rs 8,000 crore in 2019-20 financial years. And it is expected to cross Rs 10,000 crore in 2020-21; infusion of capital fund has also increased.

The Standing Committee on Defence, in its 2017-2018 report, noted that “the country, being surrounded by some difficult neighbours, with a view to keeping pace, construction of roads and development of adequate infrastructure along the borders is a vital necessity”.

When the CAG, in 2016, pointed to cost escalation, as BRO had spent 98 per cent of allocated budget for 61 India-China border roads for completing only 22 roads, the ministry of defence made a submission that main reason for cost escalation was time overrun, which occurred due to delay in forest wildlife clearances, restricted working season, inadequate air logistics support, terrain and technical constraints, extreme remoteness of the area, resulting non-availability of skilled labour and inadequate availability of construction material. It also blamed survey technology used at the time of planning these ICBRs in 1997-99, as accuracy was not up to the mark and it led to inferior estimation compared with modern-day survey techniques.

The week 

India has largest, most experienced mountain army in the world, says Chinese military expert

India has the world’s largest and most experienced troops trained for high-altitude battles, a military expert affiliated to China’s leading maker of equipment for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has said, adding that mountaineering is an “essential skill” for each Indian soldier deployed in the mountains.

“At present, the world’s largest and experienced country with plateau and mountain troops is neither the US, Russia, nor any European powerhouse, but India,” wrote Huang Guozhi, senior editor of Modern Weaponry magazine.

The magazine, considered a comprehensive military and defence journal, is affiliated to the state-owned China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (NORINCO), which describes itself as “the main platform responsible for developing mechanised, digitised and intellectualised equipment for PLA”.
 It’s one of the world’s largest defence contractors and is also closely involved in President Xi Jinping’s legacy project, the Belt and Road Initiative.

The write-up comes in the backdrop of a stand-off between Indian and Chinese border troops along the line of actual control (LAC) in the mountainous Ladakh region. It began last month and was the topic of talks between military commanders last weekend.

Huang’s article published in thepaper.cn is a rare critique of an Indian army wing in Chinese media, which usually takes the more nationalistic tone of brandishing its own capabilities along the border with India.

Huang’s take was nuanced.

“Mountaineering is an essential skill for almost every member of the Indian mountain army. To this end, India even recruited a large number of professional mountaineers and amateur mountaineers from the private sector,” Huang wrote.

“With more than 200000 troops in 12 divisions, the Indian mountain force is the largest mountain fighting force in the world,” Huang wrote.

Huang said that since the 1970s, the Indian military has established and expanded the size and personnel of the mountain army on a large-scale, and also plans to create a mountain strike force of more than 50,000 troops.

Giving the example of the Siachen Glacier, Huang wrote: “The Indian army has set up hundreds of outposts in the Siachen Glacier area with an altitude of more than 5,000 metres, with 6,000 to 7,000 fighters stationed. The highest post has reached 6,749 metres.”
 Huang didn’t mention the source of the information but went on to give a list of weaponry that the Indian army has deployed in the mountains suitable to high-altitude battles.

“In terms of equipment, the Indian military, through procurement from abroad and domestic research and development, has equipped a large number of main battle weapons adapted to the combat environment of the plateau and mountains.”

“The Indian military has also spent heavily on advanced heavy equipment from the US including the M777, the world’s lightest 155mm-towed howitzer, and the Chinook heavy transport helicopter that lifts the gun, to boost its fire support and anti-armour capabilities”.

Huang also mentioned the high-calibre sniper rifles that Indian soldiers deployed at high-altitudes are now equipped with.

The author also listed shortcomings of the Indian army mountain troops including lack of self-sufficiency in weaponry and ammunition especially needed for western weaponry.

“In addition, there are many conflicts and differences between the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force. This has also led the Indian Army to decide to equip its own US-made AH-64E Longbow Apache attack helicopters instead of relying entirely on airfield support from the air force,” Huang wrote.

Incidentally, India and the US signed an estimated $800 million contract in February this year in New Delhi for the delivery of six Boeing AH-64E Apache Guardian attack helicopters to the Indian Army’s Aviation Corps (AAC).

Hindustantimes

Philippines plans to procure Brahmos land-based supersonic anti-ship missile system from India

The development of BrahMos is based on the Russian made P-800 Oniks / Yakhont supersonic anti-ship cruise missile. The BrahMos propulsion is based on the Oniks, while the guidance system was developed by BrahMos Aerospace.

The first flight test involving BrahMos anti-ship missile was carried out on June 12, 2001, in the Interim Test Range in the state of Orissa, India.

The ship-based BrahMos missiles can carry a conventional semi-armour-piercing warhead of 200 kg. According to India, the Brahmos missile is claimed to be the fastest low-altitude missile in the world. It has a maximum firing range of 500 km.

The Brahmos missile is powered by a two-stage power-plant, with a solid-fuel rocket providing the first stage, accelerating the missile to supersonic speeds and with a liquid-fuelled ramjet as the second stage, accelerating it to a maximum speed of Mach 2.8.

Block III has advanced guidance and upgraded software, incorporating high maneuvers at multiple points and steep dive from high altitude. The steep dive capability of the Block III enables it to hit targets hidden behind a mountain range.

  Defence Aviation Post

‘Have the Chinese Occupied Our Territory in Ladakh?’: Rahul Gandhi Hits Back at Rajnath Singh

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Tuesday hit back at Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, remarking that if the Defence Minister was done commenting on the ‘hand’ symbol, he should tell if China has indeed occupied Indian territory in Ladakh.

The former Congress president tweeted today: “Once the Raksha Mantri is done commenting on the hand symbol, can he answer: Have the Chinese occupied Indian territory in Ladakh?”

Notably, ‘hand’ was in reference to the Congress’ symbol-a hand. In his attack on Gandhi last night, the Defence Minister had tweeted: “While you can take medicine if your hand is in pain, what will you do if the hand itself is the pain?”
 The Defence Minister’s attack on Gandhi was in response to the latter’s attack on Home Minister Amit Shah for his remarks that ‘India knows how to defend its borders’.

The-49-year-old Congress leader has time and again asked the government to ‘come clean’ on the situation with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, where tensions began with clashes between the two sets of troops in early May.

On Saturday, a high-level military meeting took place between the two sides but nothing substantial came out of it. The Army has moved its troops to Ladakh to mirror the Chinese deployment there.

Both sides have also rejected US President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate.

 India.com

India working on two roads in Ladakh amid border row

India is working on two key roads near the China border in eastern Ladakh — the site of a tense weeks-long border stand-off with its northern neighbour — to provide connectivity to an important forward area that the military calls Sub-Sector North (SSN), two senior officers familiar with the developments said on Monday.

While the first is the strategic Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi (DS-DBO) road that provides connectivity to the country’s northern-most outpost, Daulat Beg Oldi, the second road being built from Sasoma to Saser La could eventually provide an alternative route to DBO near the Karakoram pass, said one of the two officers. The Sasoma-Saser La road axis is south-west of DBO.

Both projects are being executed by the Border Roads Organisation (BRO), which is ferrying 11,815 workers to areas near the China border in Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand for building strategic roads, as first reported by Hindustan Times on May 31.
 India is not allowing the border confrontation with China to hinder strategic road projects in forward areas, including the Ladakh sector, where soldiers of the two nations are eyeball-to-eyeball at four locations along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), said the second officer cited above.

The current Chinese troop build-up in the Galwan valley threatens the critical 255-km DS-DBO road (also known as the SSN road), and top experts and China watchers have argued that India should build an alternative road to DBO.

The road from Sasoma to Saser La, at a height of almost 17,800 feet, is a tough project that falls under “Hardness Index-III”, the BRO’s top-most classification for hard projects, the second official added. Experts believe that the road can be extended to Brang Sa, Murgo and eventually DBO in the long term. BRO officials weren’t available for a comment.

“There’s a 200% need to have an alternative road to DBO in Sub-Sector North. The DS-DBO road can be interdicted at several choke points by Chinese forces during hostilities. While the road from Sasoma to Saser La can connect with DBO, it will be an engineering challenge due to the terrain. It may require construction of a tunnel too,” said Lieutenant General BS Jaswal (retd), a former Northern Army commander.

HT reported on May 27 that if the DS-DBO project is blocked, the Indian Army will be forced to use aerial supply lines and also build an arduous alternative route linking Sasoma to Murgo to DBO through the glaciated Saser La. Two years ago, the BRO said the Sasoma-Saser La road would be the world’s first motorable glaciated road.
Lieutenant General DS Hooda (retd), also a former Northern Army commander, said the construction of Sasoma-Saser La road in the glaciated terrain posed a huge challenge, especially in the final patches near Saser La.

“If we can build this road and further connect it to DBO, it could provide an alternative route during summer months. However, the all-weather DS-DBO road will remain very important for the army,” Hooda said.

The defence ministry told Parliament’s standing committee on defence last year that the Sasoma-Saser La road was a challenging project because of its peculiarities.

“Due to peculiarity of formation and shifting of moraines, the road suffers continuous shifting resulting in various gradients… The Central Road Research Institute has been approached for providing solution and the proposal based on CRRI recommendation is being prepared,” the ministry told the panel.

Amid the border stand-off, top officials said the BRO would complete all 61 strategic roads assigned to it along the China border by December 2022 for swifter mobilisation of troops and stores to forward areas.

A day after the external affairs ministry said that India and China will continue military and diplomatic contacts to resolve the border stand-off, defence minister Rajnath Singh met the chief of defence staff and the three service chiefs and reviewed the situation along the disputed border in the Ladakh sector.An hours-long meeting on Saturday between a delegation led by Lieutenant General Harinder Singh, commander of Leh-based 14 Corps, and a Chinese delegation headed by Major General Liu Lin, commander of the South Xinjiang military region, at Moldo on the Chinese side of the LAC ended without a breakthrough.

The external affairs ministry said the meeting “took place in a cordial and positive atmosphere” and both sides agreed to work towards peacefully resolving the situation.

In the first official acknowledgement of a troop build-up along the disputed border with China. Singh last week said a significant number of Chinese troops were present along the LAC and the Indian Army had matched the neighbour’s military moves.

China has marshalled close to 5,000 soldiers and deployed tanks and artillery guns on its side of the disputed border in the Ladakh sector, where India has also sent military reinforcements, as reported by HT on May 26.

The situation of the ground remains unchanged in the midst of efforts to break the stalemate, said officials. They added that increased Chinese air activity had been observed on the other side of the LAC during the last few days.

Hindustantimes

Kashmiri Pandit sarpanch killed by terrorists in Anantnag, parties condemn attack

Ajay Pandita alias Bharti, a 40-year-old Kashmiri Pandit sarpanch in south Kashmir’s Anantnag, was shot dead by terrorists on Monday evening. Ajay Pandita, sarpanch of Lukbawan village in Larkipora, was attacked at his orchard at around 6 pm, police said.

Bharti, who was affiliated with the Congress, was taken to a hospital but did not survive, police said.

Locals said the family of the sarpanch had migrated from south Kashmir in early 1990s but returned around two years back. He successfully contested the panchayat polls.

The police and army have launched a search operation to track down the terrorists who killed the sarpanch.

All state political parties have condemned the killing. Later in the evening, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi also condoled the gruesome killing of his party’s grassroots worker

“My condolences to the family and friends of Ajay Pandita, who sacrificed his life for the democratic process in Kashmir. We stand with you in this time of grief. Violence will never win,” Gandhi tweeted.

Union minister Jitendra Singh said: “It is a desperate attempt by anti-national elements to defeat the process of grassroots democracy, which is sought to be established in Jammu and Kashmir for the first time at the instance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi”.

Former chief minister Omar Abdullah also condemned the “terror attack on a grassroots political worker”.

PDP president Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter Iltija Mufti who is handling her mother’s social media account, tweeted a double-barrelled attack that targeted the government also.

“Condolences to the family. Shrinking political space in Kashmir has made party workers all the more vulnerable. They are stuck between punitive actions of a vindictive government & militants on the other end,” she tweeted.

Jammu and Kashmir Pradesh Congress president Ghulam Ahmad Mir said Bharti had no security cover and sought a judicial inquiry. The party also demanded a judicial inquiry into the gruesome incident.

Hindustantimes

To counter China, look for options beyond LAC

India and China are currently engaged in an opaque military stand-off across the contested Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the eastern Ladakh region. The meeting between the two general officers from both nations on June 6 ended inconclusively. This was predictable and part of a familiar pattern. This amounts to no breakthrough or breakdown and a bland official statement on what is essentially “stasis in glacial progress” — as it has been since November 1962.

Towards the end of May, Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi met with his core security team to review the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) incursion, while Chinese President Xi Jinping called upon his military to “think about worst-case scenarios” and “to scale up battle preparedness”. As part of this resolve, Beijing announced a $178 billion defence budget for 2020, and asserted that the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic would not adversely impact military preparedness.

The outcome of the latest talks is that while neither side wants military escalation leading to the exchange of ordnance, the “perception” of LAC in eastern Ladakh may have been altered in China’s tactical favour, pending the final resolution of the seemingly intractable territorial dispute between the Asian giants.
 Reviewing the current LAC impasse against the larger historical context and examining some structural trends may allow for a better understanding of India’s options and the more viable way ahead to manage the China challenge.

The contested LAC is symbolic of the decades-old territorial dispute, and from the Indian perspective, the October 1962 border war remains a stark reminder of the “humiliation” heaped on former PM Jawaharlal Nehru.

However, at a deeper level, the discord between the two nations has its roots in their pedigree and self-image, that of ancient civilisations recast by the vicissitudes of history as modern nation-states now seeking to realise a glorious past.

The paths chosen were different and the contrast is striking. While Delhi opted for the yet unpaved road of democracy, diversity and Gandhian pacifism, the Chinese path to independence was through Mao’s long march and a communist template. Thus, India will remain the eternal “other” in the Chinese calculus where the success of democracy and memories of Tiananmen 1989 remain the core concern for the ruling elite in Beijing. Thus, Taiwan and Hong Kong are high-octane issues that need to be resolved by President Xi lest the “democracy” virus, symbolically, reaches Tiananmen again.

Thus, while LAC and the surge in PLA presence in some areas of eastern Ladakh are causes for concern, the more relevant strand for India to be cognisant of is the unwavering Chinese focus on acquiring comprehensive military power, particularly the trans-border dimension of this military capability.

China pits itself against the United States (US) in its quest for great power status and this tape is to be breasted before 2049 — when Beijing will celebrate its centenary. The extended US-China tussle lies in the oceanic global commons, where Beijing perceives a vulnerability: The Malacca dilemma. This refers to China’s marked dependence on the sea lines of communication for its vast trade and energy imports. The Indian Ocean is the critical maritime domain and China is aware of its constraints as a Pacific Ocean power — geographical, political and naval, and the inherent US advantage in this spectrum.

It is instructive that China has maintained a steady uptick in its annual defence budget and the current allocation of $178 billion is an increase of almost seven per cent over the last year’s allocation. Within this , PLA navy budget is 30% or $54 billion.

The contrast with India is more than stark. The $46 billion Indian allocation for defence was disaggregated to less than 14% for the navy, with the army and air force receiving major part of the defence budget. Thus, with the maritime domain presenting a range of opportunities and challenges for India, the annual naval budget is under $7 billion — and due to the pandemic, this is likely to shrink even further.

Steady fiscal support has allowed China to embark on a blistering pace of platform acquisition over the last few years. The PLA navy has been launching as many as 25 new vessels a year and hopes to be a 550-ship navy by 2030. As for the Indian navy, even a 175-ship figure is considered “optimistic”.

The PM outlined his maritime vision in 2015 in his first term when he referred to security and growth for all in the region (SAGAR) in the Indian Ocean region. Unfortunately, this remains a vision and the fact that he did not have a full-time defence minister at that time was a major institutional constraint. Now, India has a revamped higher defence structure and one hopes that the engagement with China will be reviewed holistically and options beyond LAC considered .

Investing in the long-term acquisition of trans-border military capabilities that subsume emerging technologies is the key to managing the relationship with China. Modi has outlined the SAGAR objective. It needs a capable team that can implement this without resorting to quixotic statements. Sea blindness should not remain a permanent characteristic for Delhi.

 Hindustan times

Chinese chopper activities go up along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh

Amid efforts to address the ongoing issues in Eastern Ladakh, the Chinese Army has increased the activities of its helicopters on its side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

The Chinese chopper activity has gone up significantly in the last seven to eight days on their side of the LAC. The reason may be to provide assistance to its troops deployed on various locations along the LAC, sources said here.

The Chinese chopper fleet operating there includes both the Mi-17s and their local medium-lift choppers, sources said.
 In the last few months, China has been extensively using choppers to fly around Indian locations in the Eastern Ladakh sector including the Galwan area.

In the Galwan area, their choppers had even come above our locations and hovered over a road construction site there on one occasion recently, the sources said.

Sources said the Chinese have been frequently doing air space violations using their choppers and have been carrying out patrols near the Indian locations on the LAC.

Earlier last month, the Indian Air Force was forced to rush its fighter jet patrols in Ladakh after Chinese military choppers were found to be flying close to the Line of Actual Control. This incident happened around the same time the PLA troops and Indian army forces had face-offs in the first and second weeks of May.

"The Chinese military helicopters were flying very close to the Line of Actual Control. After their movement was picked up, the Indian Air Force fighter jets flew patrols in the area," government sources had said.

India and China have been engaged in a stand-off since May over heavy military mobilisation by the Chinese troops along the LAC. The Chinese army has also brought in its heavy artillery and armoured vehicles in the rear positions on its side of the LAC.

There have been multiple face-offs between the troops of India and China while both sides have tried to continue patrolling up to their usual points.

Both sides have had more than a dozen rounds of talks at the military level including one held on June 6 where India was represented by a Lieutenant General and China by a major general.

The talks also could not bring out any change on ground positions and both sides continue to be deployed in heavy numbers opposite each other at multiple locations from the DBO sector to the Chushul area.

TOI

Bangladeshi colonies in Kerala poses threat to national security; With fake ID cards Kerala becomes safe haven

Reports have been surfacing that illegal infiltrators in the state includes those from Bangladesh and the infiltrators themselves are revealing their original identity. It highlights that people tend to live in Kerala as Bengalis when they are originally from Bangladesh.
Bangladeshi citizen Muhammad Suhail admitted the reality to the questions posed by Janam TV.
More than 15 Bangladeshis are staying in Ernakulam Cherai Kuzhuppilly with a fake ID card from their homeland. After infiltrating into Bengal, they came to Kerala.
They have made Kerala a safe haven to live illegally without legal documents. Some others create fake documents with the help of agents.
Mohammed Suhail and Mohammed Rubail, who initially lied about being Bengalis, ran into a series of questions and finally admitted to being Bangladeshis.
This report has landed government in a trouble for they stated that there are no Bangladeshis in Kerala.

 national.janamtv

India’s Two-Front War: Myths and IAFs’ capability to fight

The scenario wherein India is engaged with its traditional opponent in the western sector and the Red Dragon opens up the eastern front, or vice versa is a ‘sticky wicket’ to play on.

Questions have been asked, war games have been played and strategies have been built around this scenario to get a feel and predict the requirements so as to be prepared for addressal in future. If an analysis of the probable situation is to be done the first item needing attention is the reality and the efficacy of a two-front war. Is it possible to have one and how effectively can the opponent(s) run the campaign?

Yes, a two-front war is a definite possibility in the Indian context nevertheless, the war envisaged, would be very difficult to coordinate and execute by the opponents. The worst-case scenario for India is, both, the western as well as eastern fronts being attacked simultaneously, thus forcing her to divide the war efforts. Any more coordinated effort by the enemies would require centralised command and control structures, aka WW II, which is envisaged not to be a possibility in the present situation. Thus, bereft of centralised command, the efficacy of a two-front attack and maintenance of the aim is diluted, giving India the edge.

For India, it would now mean breaking down the war into three distinct major geographical theatres viz. the west theatre, encompassing the borders and sea we share with Pakistan, the north theatre, encompassing the border regions of Ladakh down south to the northwestern edge of Nepal and the northeastern theatre, encompassing border regions from the south-east of Nepal to all the way up to Arunachal and further down towards the south. The border regions of Nepal, approx 1500 km and that of Myanmar to the Far East is expected to be left off the main battle. This sounds rather rosy but in actuality would be a Herculean task for the centralised war room at Delhi to handle. Airpower which paves the way for all modern campaigns, need to match up to the challenges on all three fronts.

Interestingly, in the context of traditional air warfare, Pakistan stands at a better position to threaten India, than China would. Adequacy of airbases all along the border and a tight network of air defence system provide Pakistan just the required platform for an ideal offensive and subsequent defence. China whereas, all along its area of interest, lacks adequate airbases, the few they have are at very high altitudes, penalising the take-off requirements and all up weight performance.

The PLAAF would have to be broken down, to at least four elements along the entire border and reaching the Indian assets, overflying Nepal or Myanmar, would not only involve international complexities but also the use of multiple air refuelling for every mission. However, on its plus side, China has a robust long-range air defence for most of its bases and vital points, not to forget its wide battery of “second artillery corps”. These missiles could and would prove a threat to India.

China has an arsenal of 2500 +, the surface to surface missiles of varying ranges and CEP (circular error of probability), with conventional warheads, which it would most certainly use against India in the opening wave. However, it needs to be said for IAF that a little care, planning and distribution of assets would render this threat to mostly a nuisance value, in the face of the enormity of the situation.

Civilian targets addressed by these missiles are not being considered here, nor are nuclear warheads. It would be sacrilege to put in actual calculations involving range, warheads, CEP, target diversity & a few other factors, on an open platform, however, it is safe to say the IAF has adequate depth and diversity to nullify the effect of the Chinese SSBM (surface to surface ballistic missiles) rain, the logistics for it and the actual execution would no doubt be a massive task.

The government approved fighter squadron strength for the IAF is 42.5 squadrons of which the existing number of squadrons are in the thirties. The air defence element is undergoing a revamp and looks pretty potent, notwithstanding, for a two-front war this element requires a rather large boost, especially for enemy targets of interest, not within a military zone. Gone are the days of base defence only, its time for Air Defence Umbrella for larger areas.

India’s missile force also needs work to be done on, at present, it is in a very juvenile state, a shade better than Pakistan’s. In conventional warfare, however, the SSBMs don’t really push much weight except for a few tactical ones, which could shape the immediate battlefield. The lift capability of the IAF, in the present state, is rather envious. During the last Ex Gagan Shakti in 2018 and related events of the time, the IAF had demonstrated this capability to the envy of our neighbours, interestingly enough, heavy lift capability of the IAF has increased since.

As and when it happens, in the western theatre, it would be a conventional air war like it has been for the past three full fledged wars with Pakistan. A lot of offensive air action would be seen, to make sure the PAF keeps its head down during the advance of the Indian Army. Also, offensive missions against supplies lines and feeder mechanisms would be undertaken at the onset of hostilities, in addition, missions to suppress the Pak Air defence would be required. These would be closely followed by the actions over the battlefieldwhere in our tactical fighters pound the Pak army. The entire offensive force would require a rock-solid defensive package, to give them cover from enemy fighters. The air battle here would be bloody and intense. The Rafales would welcome such a scenario to prove their multi-billion dollar worth.

The other two theatres would be pretty different, the Indian air battle here would mostly involve a defensive posture. Fewer missions for airfield busting and long-range interdiction would be flown, as compared to the battlefield strikes and shorter-range interdiction missions. It is to be appreciated that the same problems which plague the PLAAF, distance and altitude, causes problems for the IAF too.

The Air defence of own assets would be one of the most important missions in these sectors. Since the Army is the one who would play a major role in most of the places in these sectors, from holding the ‘chickens neck’, to fighting the battle mainly in mountains, most IAF missions would be in support of our surface forces.

Needless to say, the entire IAF has a task cut out in a dual front war. This scenario is generally practised by the IAF during regular intervals, the last exhaustive one being Ex Gagan Shakti, in the first half of 2018. During this exercise, the IAF demonstrated its capability and reinforced its concept of a two front war. Also practised during this, was the swing effort from front to front and very successfully too.

The effort was lauded the world over including, surprisingly, from the state-owned Chinese media. Serviceability rates and launch sustainability rates achieved during the exercise surpassed the USAF efforts at times. The IAF had similar number of fighter squadrons then as it does now, give or take one odd here and there. So are the number of squadrons now sufficient and we never need to reach the magic figure of 42.5?

The answer to the above is a big ‘NO’. Like Sam Manekshaw in the 1971 Indo-Pak war, the IAF had adequate time to plan the entire orchestrated effort for the exercise, a privilege it wont have during actual action nowadays. The blueprint for the exercise was finalised at least two years ago, over the year prior, assets were developed, raised, maintained and nursed for use during the exercise. The capability was demonstrated with a dual message, for the country-to push for the assets so due to the airforce and for the world to take notice of the IAF as a major force.

Since advance notice in case of a present-day armed conflict would be most likely absent or minuscule, the IAF may be caught in an embarrassing situation with the present strength of its assets. It is here when the entire 42.5 squadrons of fighters and other approved machinery of the IAF are required, maybe, even more with the ever-changing face of warfare.

The build-up is slow but seems to be steady over the last few years, the S-400s, the Rafales, the Akash, the LCAs, the Chinooks, the Apaches, the Globemasters, the Hercules, the Prithivis, etc, are all looking good at giving the IAF the required edge, but what looks excellent over the last few years is the will to attempt and succeed. This is by far the biggest force multiplier.

   Financial Express